BY STEPHEN LEMONS I n the run-up to the Nov. 5 election, national polls showed the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to be a dead heat, with Harris favored by some to pull out a slim victory over Trump’s Napoleonic campaign to retake the White House. But in the hours and days after the voting ended, the extent of the Democrats’ national debacle became stunningly apparent. Trump’s nearly six-point win over Harris in Arizona capped the former president’s sweep of all seven swing states, with Trump clinching both the popular vote and an Electoral College blowout. Republicans took the U.S. Senate and seemed poised to eke out a victory in the U.S. House, leaving Trump’s party with control of all three branches of govern- ment. He will reenter the White House with a mandate based on revenge, resent- ment and a longing for low prices that could easily be upended by Trump’s advo- cacy of high tariffs on imported goods. While Arizona voters tempered that damage by handing a U.S. Senate seat to Democrat Ruben Gallego instead of MAGA acolyte Kari Lake, local elections broke in a similarly troublesome direction. In Maricopa County, Democrats lost a string of races arguably more important for resi- dents of the state’s most populous county. Rachel Mitchell, the apogee of Republican cronyism, won re-election as county attorney. Jerry Sheridan, the former chief deputy of infamous Sheriff Joe Arpaio who is on the Brady list of dishonest cops, triumphed over his Democratic rival by more than seven points. Democratic county recorder candi- date Tim Stringham took a thrashing from Republican election denier Justin Heap. As bad as the election results are, though, the reality of a second Trump presidency will be much worse. Another four years of MAGA governance, unteth- ered from the need to win reelection and gifted broad immunity by the U.S. Supreme Court, could bode ill for combatting climate change, LGBTQ+ rights and the travails of the impoverished, among other things. But Trump’s win may especially affect Arizona in three ways. Trump has promised mass deportation and anti-immigrant repression, increasing the plight of Arizona’s undocumented immigrants. The President-elect’s unabashed pro-cop stance and his vocal support of police abuses of power probably mean curtains for any U.S. Justice Department effort to force the Phoenix Police Department into a consent decree. Even the recent restoration of reproductive rights in Arizona with the overwhelming passage of Proposition 139 is at risk, with Trump’s allies hoping for a national ban. Here is what the Grand Canyon State can expect. IMMIGRATION Despite the emotional and economic chaos it’s sure to cause, Trump is sticking to his promise to deport the 11 million-plus undocumented persons estimated to reside in the U.S. In a recent interview with NBC News, Trump said there would be “no price tag” for the forced exodus. Following Trump’s election, the stock price for private prison company GEO Group, which houses immi- gration detainees, rose 56%. GEO Group’s president hailed the company’s “unprece- dented opportunity.” Though some Trump allies are attempting to throw water on Trump’s immigration plans, longtime Arizona pro- immigrant activist Sal Reza said he believes the deportations are coming and will inflict terror and anguish on untold millions. He predicts that Arpaio’s now- defunct Tent City will be “multiplied” throughout the U.S. as the federal govern- ment detains those it intends to deport. “They’re going to be utilizing military bases,” Reza said of the incoming Trump administration’s plans. “They’re going to be utilizing concentration camps. They might even use the National Guard to guard those places. It could get like that.” Fourteen years ago, Reza helped orga- nize a boycott of Arizona over the state’s anti-immigrant legislation Senate Bill 1070, and he was arrested more than once for leading massive demonstrations against racist politicians such as Arpaio and former state Senate President Russell Pearce. Reza said he’s already beginning to see fear in the faces of the undocumented. He expects the federal government will ramp up raids on factories and other businesses, arresting undocumented immigrants en masse. “Some people are talking about leaving and all of that,” Reza said. “I tell them, ‘Fuck no. You have to stay here and fight.’” According to the Pew Research Center, Arizona currently is home to an estimated 250,000 unauthorized immigrants. That’s way down from 2007, when it was an esti- mated 500,000. One reason for that drop is the 2010 passage of SB 1070, which allowed local police to stop people based on reasonable suspicion they might be in the country ille- gally. The law’s stated intent was to make “attrition through enforcement the public policy of all state and local government agencies in Arizona.” Though the law was partially struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, it cemented Arizona’s reputation as a place hostile to immigrants. Arpaio furthered that racist image with raids on employers and Latino communities, leading to a corre- sponding loss in tourism dollars for the state. Everything old is new again heading into 2025, and worse. Arpaio’s acolyte, STORM’S COMING Trump second presidency will hit Arizona hard. Here’s how. Border Patrol arrests a migrant who had jumped over the border fence near Nogales on February 12, 2019. (Photo by Steven Hsieh)
