3 June 15-21, 2023 miaminewtimes.com | browardpalmbeach.com New Times | Contents | Letters | news | night+Day | CuLture | Cafe | MusiC | MONTH XX–MONTH XX, 2008 miaminewtimes.com MIAMI NEW TIMES | CONTENTS | LETTERS | RIPTIDE | METRO | NIGHT+DAY | STAGE | ART | FILM | CAFE | MUSIC | ▼ FLORIDA SEA CHANGE EXPERTS WEIGH IN ON WHAT EL NIÑO PORTENDS FOR HURRICANE SEASON. BY NAOMI FEINSTEIN T he 2023 hurricane season kicked off June 1, and National Hurri- cane Center forecasters are pre- dicting a busy few months in the tropics, with between 12 and 17 named storms by November 30. But the season may be even more unpre- dictable than usual. The weather pattern known as El Niño is expected to clash with warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, as the latter facilitates hurricane activity and the former hinders it. According to the National Oceanic and At- mospheric Administration (NOAA), five to nine of the storms could become hurricanes, and one to four might develop into major hurricanes, meaning a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm with winds 111 miles per hour or higher. Working in Florida’s favor, El Niño’s alter ego, La Niña — which typically increases At- lantic hurricane activity and has been plagu- ing the tropics for the past few hurricane seasons — appears to be on the outs. Climatology and weather researcher Brian McNoldy tells New Times it’s too early to tell how these competing meteorological forces will pan out but that the interplay between them is likely to determine how many times Floridians have to bust out the hurricane shutters this year. “Let’s say El Niño doesn’t come in as strong during the peak of the season as the current outlook suggests and the sea surface temperatures stay anomalously warm throughout the deep tropics, that will win out and we’ll end up with a pretty active sea- son, I suspect,” says McNoldy, senior re- search associate at University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. “I think my bet would be on the warmer ocean playing a larger role so maybe a slightly above-average season. My only reason for that is that when storms are faced with a warm ocean, especially warmer than the av- erage would be, it’s really a kick for them right there and then, whereas El Niño’s effect on activity is kind of an indirect one.” Ahead of last year’s hurricane season, NO- AA’s Climate Prediction Center expected a seventh consecutive year with an above-aver- age hurricane season. The 2022 season wrapped up, however, in the “near normal” category with 14 named storms and eight hurricanes, two of which were major. “A near-normal season might sound good in comparison to some of the other hurricane seasons we’ve had in the past few years, think back to 2020 and 2021, but there is nothing good about a near-normal hurricane season in terms of activity,” National Hurricane Cen- ter director Michael Brennan said at a May 31 press conference. “That’s the activity we had across the basin last year and we had a cata- strophic hurricane landfall in southwest Florida with Ian; we had Fiona affect Puerto Rico; we had hurricane landfall in Florida in November with Nicole.” Hurricane Fiona, a Category 1, ripped through the southwest coast of Puerto Rico in September 2022, knocking out the power grid, destroying homes and roadways, and unleashing catastrophic flooding with its historic levels of rainfall. Fiona was followed by Ian, which decimated the southwest coast of Florida with more than 13 feet of storm surge in Fort Myers Beach. According to NOAA, the Category 4 storm caused more than 160 deaths and over $112 billion in total damage, making it the costliest and one of the most deadly storms ever to strike Florida. A rare late-season hurricane, Nicole made landfall in November along the east coast of Florida near Vero Beach with heavy rain and powerful wind gusts. The storm caused ex- tensive beach erosion along the coast. Meteorologists and forecasters urge resi- dents to be prepared this season, noting that Hurricane Andrew, which decimated Dade County in 1992, strengthened into a Category 5 storm despite the El Niño effect. “It only takes one storm affecting your area to make it a busy season for you,” Bren- nan said. “Everybody across this country has to prepare. Ask the people of Fort Myers Beach what they had experienced in terms of storm surge before Hurricane Ian made landfall last year. Just because you lived somewhere for 30 years, 50 years, your entire life, and you haven’t seen flooding, storm surge affect your area, that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.” | RIPTIDE | GET MORE NEWS & COMMENTARY AT MIAMINEWTIMES.COM/NEWS A home damaged by Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers Beach. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images ▼ HOLLYWOOD BULLETS ON THE BEACH DETAILS EMERGE AS TO WHO TRIGGERED HOLLYWOOD BEACH MASS SHOOTING. BY JESSE FRAGA A n 18-year-old Broward County man ar- rested June 5 was allegedly the first one to whip out a gun in the mass shooting that injured nine people, including a year-old child, at Hollywood Beach on Memorial Day. Lionel JeanCharles Jr. was arrested and pro- cessed at the Hollywood Police Department at about 1:30 p.m. before officers escorted him in handcuffs two hours later to the Broward County Main Jail, according to police. He faces one count of first-degree attempted murder and multiple counts of attempted second-degree murder. The May 29 melee left the Broward County shoreline spattered with blood and sent dozens of terrified tourists and beachgoers running for cover. Four minors, including the infant, who has since been released from the hospital, were among those injured. Police reports obtained by New Times detail witness accounts of how JeanCharles and two members of his group, a 15-year-old and 16-year- old, allegedly opened fire along the Hollywood Broadwalk after approaching another group just before 7 p.m. A police affidavit says that a witness, who was detained shortly after fleeing the scene, con- firmed JeanCharles was the first person to pull out a firearm, shooting one victim in the chest. According to the affidavit, JeanCharles and the two juvenile suspects proceeded to fire rounds off at the other group and into the fleeing crowd. “The witness indicated the incident started as a verbal argument between both groups and es- calated to a physical fight. A black male known to him as ‘L.J.’ was the first to produce a hand- gun and shot Victim 1 and continued firing indis- criminately at Group 2,” the affidavit alleges, identifying “L.J.” as Lionel JeanCharles Jr. At a June 5 press conference, Hollywood po- lice said nearly all of the victims are believed to have been bystanders not involved in the alter- cation. Hollywood officer and department spokesperson Christian Lata said one victim re- mained hospitalized as of yesterday evening. “They were just victims that were walking around and ended up getting shot by these guys that were frivolously shooting,” Lata said. After opening fire, the three alleged shooters fled. Officers later recovered three firearms near an apart- ment complex a few blocks from the Mar- garitaville Hollywood Beach Resort, includ- ing a Smith & Wesson M&P Shield .380 handgun discarded in a bush. JeanCharles was seen on video footage removing his bright yellow sweatshirt and discarding it in the foliage near Cleveland Street, police say. A witness statement described him as a current or former Hallandale High School student. Detectives say they verified JeanCharles and the two juvenile shooters’ identities by carrying out interviews at nearby schools and following up on tips that flowed in after the Hollywood Police Department released photos of the suspects. On Saturday, June 3, the 15-year-old alleged shooter was taken into custody by the U.S. Mar- shals Fugitive Task Force in cooperation with the Hollywood Police Department. The following day, the 16-year-old was taken into custody. JeanCharles was then booked on the afternoon of June 5. The affidavit alleges that the trio “operated in conjunction with each other and their intent was to murder Victim 1,” the victim shot in the chest, “along with other members of Group 2.” Police say JeanCharles and the two other al- leged shooters will face the same charges: one count of attempted first-degree murder, eight counts of attempted second-degree murder, and one count of illegally carrying a concealed firearm. Lata said it’s unclear whether the juveniles will be charged as adults. [email protected] “THEY WERE JUST VICTIMS THAT WERE WALKING AROUND AND ENDED UP GETTING SHOT BY THESE GUYS.”
